Thursday, December 3, 2009

I love Moore's law

Its hard to even wrap one's mind around what this means. To give a rough idea, consider that current supercomputing experiments doing cortical simulation used less than one processor (core) per simulated neuron. How many years would will it be until there are as many cores on a chip as there are neurons in a brain? Assuming Moore's law continues and is applicable, the answer is around 32. Which means: processing power at least equivalent to the human brain's capacity will be available by 2041 (if they were all working in parallel and wired "correctly").

Also consider that neurons are much simpler and slower than digital processors. Its unlikely that the full power of a single processor is needed to emulate the function of an individual neuron, and I believe the Blue Brain project has had success with more neurons simulated per processor. So the reality is that computers of 2041 will likely be much more capable than a single human brain, in terms of processing power. Kurzweil, oh how you continue to be on-target.